Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 June 2023?

Started Mar 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as March 2023, though it is waiting for a license from the Federal Aviation Administration (Teslarati, CNET, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.04%
No 96.96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 239
Average for questions older than 6 months: 606
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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