Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 June 2023?

Started Mar 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as March 2023, though it is waiting for a license from the Federal Aviation Administration (Teslarati, CNET, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 June 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.04%
No 96.96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 59
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 239
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.451321
3.
-0.451321
4.
-0.373988
5.
-0.201747

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username