Started Sep 14, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 21, 2015 06:59AM UTC

Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action stipulates that the IAEA will investigate possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, including research conducted at the Parchin military complex. Many argue that in-person, on-site inspections are vital and that video inspections or involvement in post-inspection analyses is not sufficient (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-06/iran-dismisses-reports-of-cleanup-at-parchin-military-complex , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/world/middleeast/prospect-of-self-inspections-by-iran-feeds-opposition-to-nuclear-deal.html ).

Final Crowd Forecast

45%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

90

Forecast
Count

143

Crowd Brier Score

0.9002


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.861
2.
-0.683
3.
-0.644
4.
-0.583
5.
-0.583

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username