Started Sep 14, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 21, 2015 06:59AM UTC

Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection of the Parchin military complex in Iran before the end of the year?

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action stipulates that the IAEA will investigate possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, including research conducted at the Parchin military complex. Many argue that in-person, on-site inspections are vital and that video inspections or involvement in post-inspection analyses is not sufficient (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-06/iran-dismisses-reports-of-cleanup-at-parchin-military-complex , http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/world/middleeast/prospect-of-self-inspections-by-iran-feeds-opposition-to-nuclear-deal.html ).

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 45.00%
No 55.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 90
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 143
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.861
2.
-0.683
3.
-0.644
4.
-0.583
5.
-0.583

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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