Will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan before 1 July 2017?

Started Sep 13, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Ghani became president of Afghanistan in 2014 as part of national unity government under a deal brokered by the US, but that deal is set to expire in September 2016 and tensions between rival factions have led to some calls for a change in the composition or form of the Afghan government (Washington Post, Yahoo! News, VOA News). In the event that Ghani reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Ghani returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions When will Pierre Nkurunziza cease to be president of Burundi? Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?
President Ghani remains the president of Afghanistan. This question closed as "b) No" with an end date of 30 June 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 201
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 1129
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.033766
2.
-0.033335
3.
-0.03321
4.
-0.031172
5.
-0.030741

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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