Started Sep 01, 2015 06:29PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

A number of military setbacks have weakened Bashar al-Assad's grip on power and called into question the the commitment of his external supporters (BBC, NBC News). In the event that Assad reportedly disappears or flees the capital, the administrator will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Assad returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016? Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016? This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 28 February 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1511
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 5509
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.077
2.
-0.074
3.
-0.074
5.
-0.073

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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