Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017?

Started Sep 01, 2015 06:29PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC

A number of military setbacks have weakened Bashar al-Assad's grip on power and called into question the the commitment of his external supporters (BBC, NBC News). In the event that Assad reportedly disappears or flees the capital, the administrator will observe a three week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Assad returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016? Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016? This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 28 February 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1511
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 5509
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username