Started Oct 19, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Will there be a new King of Saudi Arabia before 1 June 2016?

The Kingdom is currently confronting a range of challenges including plummeting oil prices, war in neighboring Yemen, and fallout from the recent Hajj tragedy (Guardian, The Economist). For more information on the Saudi line of succession, see Washington Post, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Bloomberg. Recommended Questions Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016?

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
No 100%
Yes, Mohammed bin Nayef 0%
Yes, Mohammed bin Salman 0%
Yes, Muqrin bin Abdulaziz 0%
Yes, Someone else 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 695
Average for questions older than 6 months: 249
Number of Forecasts 2005
Average for questions older than 6 months: 677
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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