How many total vehicles will be sold in the US between June and August 2023?
Closed Sep 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
While inventories improved in the first quarter of 2023, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (US News & World Report, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined by adding monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) for June, July, and August 2023 once August 2023 data are first available (FRED, hover cursor over chart for data).
This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
The question closed "Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 September 2023.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Fewer than 3.0 million||0%|
|Between 3.0 million and 3.4 million, inclusive||0%|
|More than 3.4 million but fewer than 3.8 million||2%|
|Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive||86%|
|More than 4.2 million||12%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||55|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 215|
|Number of Forecasts||213|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 606|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||average|