UBS asks:

How many total vehicles will be sold in the US between June and August 2023?

Started Apr 07, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While inventories improved in the first quarter of 2023, rising interest rates are putting pressure on US auto sales (US News & World Report, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2023 and the outcome determined by adding monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) for June, July, and August 2023 once August 2023 data are first available (FRED, hover cursor over chart for data).

This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 September 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 3.0 million 0%
Between 3.0 million and 3.4 million, inclusive 0%
More than 3.4 million but fewer than 3.8 million 2%
Between 3.8 million and 4.2 million, inclusive 86%
More than 4.2 million 12%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 213
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username