UBS asks:

Between 9 June 2023 and 29 September 2023, will shares of Alphabet (Google) outperform shares of Microsoft?

Started Jun 09, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 29, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As the race to develop artificial intelligence heats up, both Alphabet and Microsoft are vying for position (Observer, NY Post). The question will be suspended on 28 September 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance - Alphabet, Class A shares, Google Finance - Microsoft). The closing values of each stock for 29 September 2023 will be divided by their respective closing values for 9 June 2023 to determine the performance, or percentage change. The difference in percentage points of each calculation will determine the resolution. In the event of an exact tie, the stock with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 9 June 2023 to the close on 29 September 2023 would be deemed the outperformer. In the event that a company splits its shares, the price of shares will be adjusted accordingly (Investopedia - Stock Split).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 29 September 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 89.15%
No 10.85%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 381
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.436249
3.
-0.381795
4.
-0.273379
5.
-0.229913

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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