Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 15 October 2023?

Started Jun 30, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 15, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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SpaceX is working to launch its next orbital flight test as soon as summer 2023 (CBS News, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.43%
No 99.57%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.125519
2.
-0.089444
3.
-0.083159
4.
-0.081986
5.
-0.077239

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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