Foxes ask:

When will a major scientific journal publish a peer-reviewed article confirming that the material LK-99 is a room-temperature superconductor working at ambient pressure?

Started Aug 04, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

In late July 2023, Korean scientists published preprints of two academic papers claiming to have synthesized a room-temperature superconductor working at ambient pressure, named LK-99 (arXiv, Science.org, Phys.org). The means by which the LK-99 is either doped or undoped is immaterial (Halbleiter.org). "Superconductor" means a material that 1) has no electrical resistance and 2) does not allow magnetic fields to penetrate it, which is called the Meissner effect (Live Science, Britannica - Meissner effect). A finding of negligible resistance consistent with findings for other established superconductors would count. For the purposes of this question, "major scientific journal" is any journal with a Scimago Journal & Country Rank (SJR) greater than 1.00 as of the publication of the article (SJR, Daemen.edu).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 1 January 2024 0% 0% 0% 0%
Between 1 January 2024 and 30 June 2024 0.87% -0.13% -0.13% -0.13%
Between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2024 2.63% -0.37% -0.37% -0.37%
Not before 1 January 2025 96.50% +0.50% +0.50% +0.50%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username