Will a winner of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences have a faculty appointment at Harvard University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when the prize is announced?

Started Sep 11, 2023 09:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 09, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Both Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates (iSchoolConnect). The announcement of the winner or winners of the 2023 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled for 9 October 2023 (Nobel Prize Announcement Dates). A winner with a faculty emeritus title or affiliate faculty title at either institution when the prize is announced would count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 9 October 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 45%
No 55%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 161
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 309
Average for questions older than 6 months: 578
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.760204
2.
-0.696689
3.
-0.625225

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username