Will a crewed Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 September 2024?

Started Sep 15, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 06, 2024 05:57PM UTC

After years of delays, Boeing is pushing for its first launch with a crew aboard in 2024 (NASA Spaceflight, Boeing - Starliner Updates).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 6 June 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 78%
No 22%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 208
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username