What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 as of 12 March 2024?

Started Sep 22, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 12, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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Antarctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the southern hemisphere that's at least 15% sea ice, has been lower than the historic range in 2022 and 2023 (BBC). The question will be suspended on 11 March 2024 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 March 2024 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, click "Antarctic" on the left side above the graph, About Charctic Data). Other site data would be immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported antarctic sea ice extent in 2023 was 1.788 million sq. km on 21 February.

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The question closed "Between 1.7 million sq. km and 2.0 million sq. km, inclusive" with a closing date of 12 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.7 million sq. km 0%
Between 1.7 million sq. km and 2.0 million sq. km, inclusive 99%
More than 2.0 million sq. km but less than 2.3 million sq. km 1%
Between 2.3 million sq. km and 2.6 million sq. km, inclusive 0%
More than 2.6 million sq. km but less than 2.9 million sq. km 0%
Between 2.9 million sq. km and 3.2 million sq. km, inclusive 0%
More than 3.2 million sq. km 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 54
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 367
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.086856
2.
-0.082471
3.
-0.078534
4.
-0.073722
5.
-0.070727

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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