Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 February 2024?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 18, 2023 01:07PM UTC

SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed (Space.com, Spaceflight Now, CNN). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 18 November 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 71%
No 29%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 103
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.456221
3.
-0.403017
4.
-0.3899
5.
-0.376969

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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