Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 February 2024?

Started Oct 20, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 18, 2023 01:07PM UTC

SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed (Space.com, Spaceflight Now, CNN). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 18 November 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 71%
No 29%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 103
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.456221
3.
-0.403017
4.
-0.3899
5.
-0.376969

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username