Before 1 January 2018, will Iran's monthly oil production exceed 4 million barrels per day?

Started Nov 01, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Since sanctions were lifted in early 2016, Iran has sharply increased its oil production (CNN Money), and the country is aiming to hit a rate of 4 million barrels per day in the near future (PressTV). Question will be resolved using monthly data for "Iran, I.R." reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply: OPEC Crude Oil Production" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report. In the October 2016 report, the relevant data can be found in Table 5.6 on page 62. That report shows Iran producing an estimated 3.665 million barrels per day in September of 2016. If the question has not already resolved, it will be suspended on 31 December 2017 and closed when the December data are released, typically in January. Recommended Questions Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion? Before 1 November 2017, will the US impose economic sanctions on Iran for activities related to a nuclear program?
Iran's monthly oil production did not exceed 4 million barrels per day in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 313
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1797
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.617268
2.
-0.613715
3.
-0.609131
4.
-0.601299
5.
-0.598752

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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