Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2024?

Started Dec 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed as of 28 December 2023 (Ars Technica, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 270
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.401737
3.
-0.364346
4.
-0.353292
5.
-0.353292

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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