How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2024?
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
After a relatively quiet wildfire season in 2023, there are concerns that the advent of El Niño could lead to greater wildfire vulnerability (Phys.org, Idaho Mountain Express, NIFC - Outlooks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2022, reported wildfires consumed 7,577,183 acres in the US (NIFC Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2022, NIFC - Wildfires and Acres).
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The question closed "More than 8.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 3.5 million | 1% | |
| Between 3.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 5.0 million but fewer than 6.5 million | 0% | |
| Between 6.5 million and 8.0 million, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 8.0 million but fewer than 9.5 million | 97% | |
| Between 9.5 million and 11.0 million, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 11.0 million but fewer than 12.5 million | 0% | |
| Between 12.5 million and 14.0 million, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 14.0 million | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 36 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 403 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
