Will a first or second seed team in the 2024 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament lose in the first round?

Started Feb 16, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 22, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Sixty-four (excluding the First Four games) men's college basketball teams, split into four groups of 16, will compete for the 2024 Men's Basketball Championship (NCAA - Men's NCAA Tournament Schedule). The teams playing and their seeds (i.e., their rankings within the group of 16) are scheduled to be announced on Selection Sunday on 17 March 2024 (ESPN). The question will be suspended on 21 March 2024 and the outcome determined once the first round is completed, scheduled for 22 March 2024.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 22 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 48%
No 52%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 63
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 147
Number of Forecasts 100
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 331
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.491
2.
-0.483
3.
-0.434
4.
-0.431
5.
-0.429

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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