How much carbon dioxide (CO2) will China emit in 2024 as compared to 2023, according to Carbon Monitor?

Started Mar 15, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
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The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Carbon Monitor (Carbon Monitor). Once on the webpage, click "EXPAND FILTERS" on the left side of the screen, then 1) confirm that "FILTER BY SECTOR" is set to "All sectors," 2) set "SET A DATE RANGE" to "from January 1st to December 31st," and 3) set "COMPARE YEARS" to "2024 VS 2023." Data is shown by hovering your cursor over the appropriate column, which in this case is "CHN" for China. Other site data are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, China CO2 emissions rose 3.0% for "All sectors" for "Jan 1st > Dec 31st, 2023" as compared to "Jan 1st > Dec 31st, 2022."

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The question closed "Down by more than 0.0% but at most 3.0%" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Down by more than 3.0% 0%
Down by more than 0.0% but at most 3.0% 97%
Up by at least 0.0%, but less than 3.0% 3%
Up by 3.0% or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 228
Average for questions older than 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.237314
2.
-0.214902
3.
-0.133585
4.
-0.101932
5.
-0.086473

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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