UBS asks:
What will be the monthly global land and sea temperature anomaly for July 2024, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?
Closing Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (NASA). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA, expected in August 2024 (NOAA, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). As of the launch of this question, the anomaly for July 2023 was 1.19°C.
This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 0.90°C | 11.80% | -1.40% | +10.55% |
| At least 0.90°C, but less than 1.10°C | 12.20% | +1.30% | +2.89% |
| At least 1.10°C, but less than 1.30°C | 57.30% | -0.40% | -10.58% |
| At least 1.30°C, but less than 1.50°C | 18.30% | +0.40% | -1.08% |
| More than 1.50°C | 0.40% | +0.10% | -1.79% |