Oiram18 asks:
As of 12 July 2024, how many US states will have had a confirmed case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or "bird flu"), according to the USDA?
Closed Jul 12, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The discovery of HPAI in US dairy cows has raised concerns about the virus' impact on livestock and potentially humans (NBC News, NPR). The question will be suspended on 12 July 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). States with a "Date confirmed by NVSL" of 12 July 2024 or earlier for a mammalian species will count. The NVSL is the National Veterinary Services Laboratories (USDA). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 24 July 2024, and the question would close early if 48 or more states are reported to have had confirmed cases before 12 July 2024. Detection in the District of Columbia is immaterial.
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The question closed "At least 12, but fewer than 24" with a closing date of 13 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 12 | 19% | |
| At least 12, but fewer than 24 | 71% | |
| At least 24, but fewer than 36 | 1% | |
| At least 36, but fewer than 48 | 0% | |
| 48 or more | 9% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 26 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 171 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 126 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 444 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
