What will be the average Air Quality Index value in New Delhi, India, in May 2024?

Started May 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2024 07:01AM UTC
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A report from Swiss air quality technology company IQAir indicated that 83 of the 100 cities with the worst air pollution in the world were in India in 2023 (CNN). The question will be suspended on 30 May 2024 and the outcome determined using data from AirNow once complete data for the month of May 2024 are available (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data on the site, choose "New Delhi" under "Select a City," click on the "Historical" tab, and download the file for "2024 PM2.5 YTD." Add all positive valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999, and valid data points are labeled "Valid" under "QC Name") with a "5" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in May 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 were, respectively, 164.15, 123.07, 123.84, 158.47, and 129.19. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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NOTE 3 May 2024: The question is concerned with the month of May 2024, not April 2024.


The question closed "At least 160.00, but less than 170.00" with a closing date of 1 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 120.00 1%
At least 120.00, but less than 130.00 1%
At least 130.00, but less than 140.00 0%
At least 140.00, but less than 150.00 0%
At least 150.00, but less than 160.00 0%
At least 160.00, but less than 170.00 93%
170.00 or more 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 15
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 143
Number of Forecasts 117
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 322
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.052074
2.
-0.042013
3.
-0.041549
4.
-0.026352
5.
-0.025921

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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