UBS asks:
Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, or PSOE) be more popular in Spain than the People's Party (Partido Popular, or PP) as of 7 August 2024, according to Politico?
Closing Aug 07, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE announced on 29 April 2024 that he would not step down in the wake of a Spanish court opening an investigation into his wife for corruption (CNN, El País). The question will be suspended on 6 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Spain once data for 7 August 2024 are first available (Politico, use default "Smooth" view). Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, by more than 5% | 6.90% | +0.50% | +2.34% |
| Yes, by more than 0% but no more than 5% | 46.40% | +3.20% | +15.59% |
| No, the PSOE and PP will be tied or the PP will be more popular by no more than 5% | 41.20% | -4.20% | -10.74% |
| No, the PP will be more popular by more than 5% | 5.50% | +0.50% | -7.19% |