UBS asks:

Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, or PSOE) be more popular in Spain than the People's Party (Partido Popular, or PP) as of 7 August 2024, according to Politico?

Started May 08, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 07, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE announced on 29 April 2024 that he would not step down in the wake of a Spanish court opening an investigation into his wife for corruption (CNN, El País). The question will be suspended on 6 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Spain once data for 7 August 2024 are first available (Politico, use default "Smooth" view). Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes, by more than 5% 1.00% +1.00% +0.40% -4.80%
Yes, by more than 0% but no more than 5% 9.00% -1.00% -0.90% -33.70%
No, the PSOE and PP will be tied or the PP will be more popular by no more than 5% 63.00% +1.00% -4.90% +18.90%
No, the PP will be more popular by more than 5% 27.00% -1.00% +5.40% +19.60%

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