How many gold medals will China win in the 2024 Olympics?

Started Jun 21, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 10, 2024 05:00PM UTC

China is expected to be a top competitor at the 2024 Paris Olympics, though its image has been tarnished by a new doping scandal (NBC New York, AP). The 2024 Paris Olympics are scheduled for 26 July through 11 August 2024 (Olympics.com). Whether an athlete is stripped of a medal after the conclusion of the 2024 Olympics is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "38 or more" with a closing date of 10 August 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
25 or fewer 0%
Between 26 and 29 2%
Between 30 and 33 8%
Between 34 and 37 60%
38 or more 30%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 28
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 166
Number of Forecasts 170
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 436
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.406095
2.
-0.331034
3.
-0.261501
4.
-0.131745
5.
-0.093762

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username