How many cumulative year-to-date US resident cases of pertussis (aka whooping cough) will the CDC report as of Week 52 of 2024?
Closed Dec 28, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Cases of pertussis in the US have jumped in 2024 (ABC News, MSN [Boston Globe]). The total number of cases in 2024 reported through Week 23 (week ending 8 June 2024) was 5,669, which was higher than the 5,611 total for all of 2023 (CDC - Pertussis Cases Week 23 2024, CDC - Pertussis Cases Week 52 2023). The question will be suspended on 27 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by the CDC for the week ending 28 December 2024 (CDC - Weekly Notifiable Disease Tables, scroll down to and click "Pertussis," and see "U.S. Residents, excluding U.S. Territories"). Data for specific weeks can be found by clicking the "Change Year/Week" button and selecting the year and week for which you want information.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "35,000 or more" with a closing date of 29 December 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 10,000 | 0% | |
| At least 10,000, but fewer than 13,000 | 0% | |
| At least 13,000, but fewer than 16,000 | 0% | |
| At least 16,000, but fewer than 19,000 | 0% | |
| At least 19,000, but fewer than 22,000 | 0% | |
| At least 22,000, but fewer than 26,000 | 0% | |
| At least 26,000, but fewer than 30,000 | 0% | |
| At least 30,000, but fewer than 35,000 | 55% | |
| 35,000 or more | 45% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 21 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 178 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 349 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 519 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
