Will the conviction of Adnan Syed, featured on the "Serial" podcast, be overturned before the end of 2016?

Started Sep 14, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2016 09:00PM UTC
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This question was closed as "yes" on 30 June 2016: On June 30th, Baltimore City Circuit Judge Martin Welch vacated Syed's conviction (NPR, Serial, Baltimore Sun, Court Order via NY Times). This American Life's "Serial" Podcast, which investigated the 1999 murder case against Adnan Syed, went viral last fall (Financial Times). His lawyer recently presented new evidence in an appeal to reopen the case (US News & World Report). Last updated 17 September 2015.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4.00%
No 96.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 185
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 659
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.632
2.
-1.627
3.
-1.446
4.
-1.393
5.
-1.387

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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