What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2025 as of 12 March 2025?

Started Aug 16, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2025 11:00PM UTC
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Antarctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the southern hemisphere that is at least 15% sea ice, reached near historic lows in 2024 (NASA Earth Observatory). The question will be suspended on 11 March 2025 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 March 2025 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, click "Antarctic" on the left side above the graph, About Charctic Data). The question will close as of the date of the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent (the most recent if there is a tie for the lowest extent). Other site data is immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 was 1.985 million sq. km on 20 February.

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The question closed "At least 1.75 million sq. km, but less than 2.00 million sq. km" with a closing date of 1 March 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.25 million sq. km 0%
At least 1.25 million sq. km, but less than 1.50 million sq. km 0%
At least 1.50 million sq. km, but less than 1.75 million sq. km 2%
At least 1.75 million sq. km, but less than 2.00 million sq. km 40%
At least 2.00 million sq. km, but less than 2.25 million sq. km 55%
At least 2.25 million sq. km, but less than 2.50 million sq. km 2%
At least 2.50 million sq. km, but less than 2.75 million sq. km 1%
At least 2.75 million sq. km, but less than 3.00 million sq. km 0%
At least 3.00 million sq. km, but less than 3.50 million sq. km 0%
3.50 million sq. km or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 469
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.095909
2.
-0.087937
3.
-0.064715
4.
-0.062128
5.
-0.061835

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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