What will be the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2025 as of 12 March 2025?
Closed Mar 01, 2025 11:00PM UTC
Antarctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the southern hemisphere that is at least 15% sea ice, reached near historic lows in 2024 (NASA Earth Observatory). The question will be suspended on 11 March 2025 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 12 March 2025 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, click "Antarctic" on the left side above the graph, About Charctic Data). The question will close as of the date of the lowest reported Antarctic sea ice extent (the most recent if there is a tie for the lowest extent). Other site data is immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported Antarctic sea ice extent in 2024 was 1.985 million sq. km on 20 February.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 1.75 million sq. km, but less than 2.00 million sq. km" with a closing date of 1 March 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 1.25 million sq. km | 0% | |
| At least 1.25 million sq. km, but less than 1.50 million sq. km | 0% | |
| At least 1.50 million sq. km, but less than 1.75 million sq. km | 2% | |
| At least 1.75 million sq. km, but less than 2.00 million sq. km | 40% | |
| At least 2.00 million sq. km, but less than 2.25 million sq. km | 55% | |
| At least 2.25 million sq. km, but less than 2.50 million sq. km | 2% | |
| At least 2.50 million sq. km, but less than 2.75 million sq. km | 1% | |
| At least 2.75 million sq. km, but less than 3.00 million sq. km | 0% | |
| At least 3.00 million sq. km, but less than 3.50 million sq. km | 0% | |
| 3.50 million sq. km or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 47 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 469 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |