Between August 2024 and January 2025, what will be the highest monthly global land and sea temperature anomaly, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?
Closed Feb 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (NASA). The question will be suspended on 31 January 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA, expected in February 2025 (NOAA, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). As of the launch of this question, the anomaly for January 2024 was 1.29°C.
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The question closed "At least 1.30°C, but lower than 1.40°C" with a closing date of 1 February 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 1.00°C | 0% | |
| At least 1.00°C, but lower than 1.10°C | 0% | |
| At least 1.10°C, but lower than 1.20°C | 0% | |
| At least 1.20°C, but lower than 1.30°C | 0% | |
| At least 1.30°C, but lower than 1.40°C | 99% | |
| At least 1.40°C, but lower than 1.50°C | 1% | |
| 1.50°C or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 25 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 170 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 136 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 501 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
