Among the best (highest ranked) large language model (LLM) of each organization in the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, what will be the rank of Elon Musk’s xAI as of 11 April 2025?

Started Oct 11, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 11, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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Elon Musk's artificial intelligence startup, xAI, has joined the likes of OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic to develop cutting edge LLMs (Artificial Intelligence News, The Verge, xAI). The question will be suspended on 10 April 2025 and the outcome determined using the ranks as reported by the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at approximately 5:00PM ET on 11 April 2025 (Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard, see "Organization" column). As of 8 October 2024, xAI's rank was third as an organization with its "Grok-2-08-13" model ranked behind OpenAI’s best model (“ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-09-03)”) and Google’s best model (“Gemini-1.5-Pro-002”). For more information on how the leaderboard is constructed, see (LMSYS Blog). In the event of an Arena Score tie for a rank among models from different organizations, the LLM with the higher number of "Votes" will be deemed to be ranked higher.

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The question closed "3rd" with a closing date of 11 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
1st 12%
2nd 20%
3rd 25%
4th 33%
5th or lower 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 41
Average for questions older than 6 months: 173
Number of Forecasts 220
Average for questions older than 6 months: 508
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.300454
2.
-0.26742
3.
-0.209434
4.
-0.183814
5.
-0.178968

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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