What will be the average Air Quality Index value in New Delhi, India, in November 2024?

Started Nov 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 30, 2024 08:01AM UTC
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A report from Swiss air quality technology company IQAir indicated that 83 of the 100 cities with the worst air pollution in the world were in India in 2023 (CNN). The question will be suspended on 29 November 2024 and the outcome determined using data from AirNow once complete data for the month of November 2024 are available (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data on the site, choose "New Delhi" under "Select a City," click on the "Historical" tab, and download the file for "2024 PM2.5 YTD." Add all positive valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999, and valid data points are labeled "Valid" under "QC Name") with an "11" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in November 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 were, respectively, 256.41, 254.82, 275.71, 230.66, and 285.63. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "335.00 or more" with a closing date of 1 December 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 225.00 0%
At least 225.00, but less than 235.00 0%
At least 235.00, but less than 245.00 0%
At least 245.00, but less than 255.00 0%
At least 255.00, but less than 265.00 0%
At least 265.00, but less than 275.00 0%
At least 275.00, but less than 285.00 0%
At least 285.00, but less than 295.00 0%
At least 295.00, but less than 305.00 0%
At least 305.00, but less than 315.00 0%
At least 315.00, but less than 325.00 0%
At least 325.00, but less than 335.00 0%
335.00 or more 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 133
Number of Forecasts 131
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 305
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.137364
2.
-0.136441
3.
-0.063839
4.
-0.046124
5.
-0.035157

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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