Who will the governor of Florida publicly announce as the choice to fill the US Senate vacancy to be left by Senator Marco Rubio?
Closed Jan 16, 2025 03:30PM UTC
With Senator Marco Rubio expected to be appointed US Secretary of State after Donald Trump's election victory, the responsibility to replace Rubio will fall on the governor of Florida (The Hill, NY Post, CBS News). The new Senate is scheduled to begin on 3 January 2025, and Secretaries of State are customarily nominated and confirmed within days of a new president's inauguration on 20 January (US Constitution - Amendment XX, Center for Presidential Transition). The question will close early upon Trump's transition team or administration publicly announcing that Trump is no longer seeking Rubio's appointment as Secretary of State or Rubio publicly announcing that he is no longer seeking the job.
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The question closed "Ashley Moody" with a closing date of 16 January 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | 2% | |
| Ashley Moody | 29% | |
| Jeanette Nuñez | 18% | |
| José Oliva | 5% | |
| Jimmy Patronis | 2% | |
| Lara Trump | 2% | |
| James Uthmeier | 11% | |
| Someone else | 31% | |
| The governor of Florida will not announce a choice to replace Marco Rubio in the US Senate before 1 February 2025 | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 21 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 158 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 97 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 418 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
