The Economist asks:
What will be the monthly global land and sea temperature anomaly for July 2025, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?
Closed Aug 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (Economist, NASA). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2025 and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA, expected in August 2025 (NOAA, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). As of the launch of this question, the anomaly for July 2024 was 1.22°C.
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NOTE 4 July 2025: NOAA appears to have reordered its site. The new link for the data is here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series. Download options are under the chart.
The question closed "At least 0.90°C, but less than 1.10°C" with a closing date of 1 August 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 0.90°C | 4% | |
| At least 0.90°C, but less than 1.10°C | 23% | |
| At least 1.10°C, but less than 1.30°C | 43% | |
| At least 1.30°C, but less than 1.50°C | 23% | |
| 1.50°C or more | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 240 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 814 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
