Will Tulsi Gabbard be sworn in as the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before 1 April 2025?

Started Nov 22, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 12, 2025 09:15PM UTC

President-elect Donald Trump has named former Representative Tulsi Gabbard as his pick to be the next DNI, though some Democrats have claimed that she is a "national security threat" (AP, The Hill, Newsweek). Trump has called for the Senate to allow him to make recess appointments, which has historically been a point of friction between the White House and Senate in recent history (Newsweek, Congressional Research Service). If Trump's transition team or administration publicly announces that Trump is no longer seeking Gabbard's appointment as DNI or Gabbard publicly announces that she is no longer seeking the job, the question will close early as "No."

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The question closed "Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate" with a closing date of 12 February 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate 95%
Yes, after a recess appointment by the president 1%
No 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 60
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 152
Number of Forecasts 286
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 405
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.483265
2.
-0.48086
3.
-0.477918
4.
-0.476218
5.
-0.470713

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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