Will Pam Bondi be sworn in as US Attorney General before 1 April 2025?

Started Nov 22, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 05, 2025 05:00PM UTC

President-elect Donald Trump named Pam Bondi, a former Attorney General for the state of Florida, as his choice to replace Matt Gaetz after he withdrew his name from consideration (The Hill, CBS News). Trump has called for the Senate to allow him to make recess appointments, which has historically been a point of friction between the White House and Senate in recent history (Yahoo [CBC], Congressional Research Service). If Trump's transition team or administration publicly announces that Trump is no longer seeking Bondi's appointment as Attorney General or Bondi publicly announces that she is no longer seeking the job, the question will close early as "No."

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The question closed "Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate" with a closing date of 5 February 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, after having been confirmed by the US Senate 99%
Yes, after a recess appointment by the president 0%
No 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 152
Number of Forecasts 123
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 405
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001915
2.
-0.001915
3.
-0.001915
4.
-0.001909
5.
-0.001853

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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