What will the president's approval rating be as of 20 July 2025, according to FiveThirtyEight?
Closed Jul 20, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 19 July 2025 and the outcome determined using "All polls" chart data provided by FiveThirtyEight's presidential approval page (FiveThirtyEight - Previous Trump Approval Ratings, FiveThirtyEight - Trump Favorability Ratings). When FiveThirtyEight begins publishing current job approval data, we will post the link on this page. The data for 20 July 2025 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 24 July 2025.
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NOTE 30 January 2025: The president's approval ratings from FiveThirtyEight may be found here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/
NOTE 6 March 2025: We are aware that ABC has apparently shut down FiveThirtyEight. We will keep an eye on the source page. If it ceases to be updated and there is no methodologically consistent alternative available, we will void the question.
NOTE 10 March 2025: Because ABC has eliminated FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver, who originally founded FiveThirtyEight, has begun to provide the same polling data in a methodologically consistent manner, the outcome of this question will be determined using approval rating data as aggregated by Nate Silver (Nate Silver).
The question closed "At least 44.0%, but less than 46.0%" with a closing date of 20 July 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 38.0% | 0% | |
| At least 38.0%, but less than 40.0% | 0% | |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 42.0% | 1% | |
| At least 42.0%, but less than 44.0% | 47% | |
| At least 44.0%, but less than 46.0% | 45% | |
| At least 46.0%, but less than 48.0% | 5% | |
| At least 48.0%, but less than 50.0% | 1% | |
| At least 50.0%, but less than 52.0% | 1% | |
| At least 52.0%, but less than 54.0% | 0% | |
| 54.0% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 62 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 874 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |