Before 8 August 2025, will a United States Supreme Court Justice announce his or her retirement?
Closed Aug 08, 2025 07:01AM UTC
With Donald Trump's reelection, he may end up naming more than one new Supreme Court Justice in his second term (NBC News, CBS News, CNN). An announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor will count, irrespective of the date it is to take effect (e.g., Supreme Court - O'Connor Letter, Supreme Court - Breyer Letter). The death or removal of a Justice alone will not count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 August 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 78 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 275 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
