Will Leopoldo Lopez be released from prison before 1 July 2017?

Started Jan 24, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Leopoldo Lopez, a member of Venezuela's opposition, has been imprisoned since 2014 (Foreign Policy, UK Telegraph). The release of Lopez and other political prisoners is one of the issues being discussed in the Vatican-sponsored negotiations between President Maduro and the opposition (The Economist, United Press International, Latin America Herald Tribune). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether Geert Wilders will become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections? or on whether a date will be set for early general elections in the United Kingdom before 1 July 2017.
There is no evidence that Leopoldo Lopez was released from prison. This question closed as "b) No" with and end date of 30 June 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 121
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 514
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.013998
2.
-0.013998
3.
-0.013382
4.
-0.012697
5.
-0.012399

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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