Which organization's large language model (LLM) will be ranked first as of 14 November 2025, according to Chatbot Arena (formerly LMSYS Org)?

Started Dec 06, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 14, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

Technology companies and organizations are racing to develop the best performing chatbots (Axios, The Verge). The question will be suspended on 13 November 2025 and the outcome determined using the ranks as reported by LMSYS Org at approximately 5:00PM ET on 14 November 2025 (Chatbot Arena, see "Rank* (UB)"). As of 5 December 2024, OpenAI was ranked first with its "ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-11-20)" model with an Arena Score of 1366. In the event of a tie for first place by LLMs of different organizations, the LLM with the higher Arena Score will be considered first, followed by the "Votes" total.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 27 May 2025: The source has changed the layout of its site. The "Text Arena" leaderboard will be used for resolution (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text).


The question closed "Google" with a closing date of 14 November 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Anthropic 3%
Google 93%
Meta 1%
OpenAI 3%
xAI 0%
Another organization 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 67
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 340
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.522591
2.
-0.485109
3.
-0.300005
4.
-0.296215
5.
-0.262132

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username