Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actor in a Leading Role?

Started Jan 27, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 27, 2017 07:59AM UTC
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The 89th Academy Awards® take place on Sunday, February 26. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge here. This question was closed on "Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)" (The Oscars) with an end date of 26 February 2017 See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) 56%
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge) 0%
Ryan Gosling (La La Land) 1%
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) 0%
Denzel Washington (Fences) 43%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 102
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 207
Average for questions older than 6 months: 584
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.550603
2.
-0.550603
3.
-0.550603
4.
-0.530919
5.
-0.465777

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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