How many of President Trump's nominations for Cabinet positions will "fail" before 24 May 2025?

Started Dec 27, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 24, 2025 07:01AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, a nomination from President Trump must be formally received by the US Senate (announced "picks" for positions made before Trump's inauguration are immaterial), and a nomination will be deemed to have failed if:

A) the nominee publicly announces that he or she will no longer seek the position for which he or she was nominated,

B) the President formally withdraws the nomination,

C) the Senate votes down the nomination,

D) the nomination is not voted upon by the US Senate before 31 March 2025 unless the formal reception of the nomination occurs after 30 April 2025, or

E) someone's nomination is formally received and Trump uses a recess appointment to bypass the Senate.

There can be more than one failure of a nomination per cabinet position. In other words, multiple formally received nominations per position will count toward the total (e.g., if Trump nominates Chris to a position, then Chris withdraws, then Trump nominates Travis to the same position, then the Senate votes down Travis' nomination, that would count as two "fails"). Please note that hearings for a nominee may occur prior to a nomination being formally received (e.g., Antony Blinken as Secretary of State in 2021 Congress.gov). The positions considered cabinet positions are: Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, Ambassador to the United Nations, United States Trade Representative, Director of National Intelligence, and the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (CBS News, NY Times, Senate.gov - Nominations). The question will close early upon all cabinet positions being filled as of a single point in time.

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NOTE 28 March 2025: Regarding condition (D), any nomination formally received by the US Senate between 31 March 2025 and 30 April 2025 will not be deemed to have failed so long as the nomination is voted upon before 24 May 2025.


The question closed "One" with a closing date of 24 May 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Zero 12%
One 71%
Two 11%
Three or four 0%
Five or more 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 207
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.207746
3.
-0.194115
4.
-0.179215
5.
-0.162754

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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