Who will win the 2017 Academy Award for Actress in a Leading Role?

Started Jan 27, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 27, 2017 07:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

The 89th Academy Awards® take place on Sunday, February 26. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on the rest of the Oscar Challenge here. This question was closed on "Emma Stone (La La Land)" (The Oscars) with an end date of 26 February 2017 See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Isabelle Huppert (Elle) 1%
Ruth Negga (Loving) 0%
Natalie Portman (Jackie) 6%
Emma Stone (La La Land) 93%
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 109
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 204
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.224239
2.
-0.224239
3.
-0.220135
4.
-0.204239
5.
-0.191819

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username