When will Mike Johnson cease to be the Speaker of the US House of Representatives?
Started
Jan 10, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Despite the GOP having a razor-thin majority in the US House and some Republicans voicing discontent, Speaker Mike Johnson was reelected as Speaker of the House on the first vote on 3 January 2025 (The Hill).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Not before 1 January 2026" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 8 May 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 8 May 2025 and 3 September 2025 | 0% | |
| Between 4 September 2025 and 31 December 2025 | 2% | |
| Not before 1 January 2026 | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 43 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 156 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 188 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 464 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
