Will Tesla deliver 500,000 or more vehicles in the first quarter of 2025?

Started Jan 17, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
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Tesla suffered its first-ever drop in annual deliveries in 2024 (CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 and the outcome determined using Tesla's Production & Delivery press release for Q1 2025, typically found under "Production & Delivery" (Tesla - Quarterly Results). Tesla's total vehicle deliveries in the first quarter of 2024 was 386,810 (Tesla - Production & Deliveries Q1 2024).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 149
Number of Forecasts 226
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 398
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.07482
3.
-0.069101
4.
-0.068877
5.
-0.06158

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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