Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) regarding human metapneumovirus (HMPV) before 1 January 2026?

Started Jan 24, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
Society   Health  

HMPV is a virus that can cause respiratory disease, and public health officials are concerned that an increase in cases could evolve into a pandemic (The Hill, BBC, CDC). A PHEIC is defined by WHO as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response" under International Health Regulations, with recent examples including COVID-19, mpox (fka Monkeypox), and wild polio (International Health Regulations 2005, linked here under publications - WHO - International Health Regulations, International Health Regulations - Annex II, Pan American Health Organization, WHO - Mpox PHEIC Declaration 2024).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10%
No 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 73
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000291
2.
-0.000284
3.
-0.000278
4.
-0.000278
5.
-0.000278

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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