Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) regarding human metapneumovirus (HMPV) before 1 January 2026?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
HMPV is a virus that can cause respiratory disease, and public health officials are concerned that an increase in cases could evolve into a pandemic (The Hill, BBC, CDC). A PHEIC is defined by WHO as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response" under International Health Regulations, with recent examples including COVID-19, mpox (fka Monkeypox), and wild polio (International Health Regulations 2005, linked here under publications - WHO - International Health Regulations, International Health Regulations - Annex II, Pan American Health Organization, WHO - Mpox PHEIC Declaration 2024).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | |
| No | 90% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 73 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |