How many cases of measles will the CDC report for 2025?

Started Jan 31, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 23, 2025 09:00PM UTC
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Tags
Society   Health  

While cases of measles in the US have remained relatively low in recent years as compared to the mid-20th Century, outbreaks are possible and concerns over falling vaccination rates have caught the attention of public health officials (AP, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as provided by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) when first available for all of 2025 (CDC - Measles). Annual cases of measles in the US last reached 1,500 in 1992 at 2,126. If cases reach 1,500, data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) will be used to ascertain when the threshold was reached (CDC Stacks).

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The question closed "1,500 or more" with a closing date of 23 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 500 0%
At least 500, but fewer than 1,000 1%
At least 1,000, but fewer than 1,500 4%
1,500 or more 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 245
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.461365
2.
-0.425471
3.
-0.392599
4.
-0.305065
5.
-0.277471

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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