Will the CDC report more than 500 cases of mumps for 2025?

Started Jan 31, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
Society   Health  

While cases of mumps in the US have remained relatively low in recent decades as compared to the mid-20th Century, outbreaks are possible and concerns over falling vaccination rates have caught the attention of public health officials (CDC - Mumps, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as provided by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) when first available for all of 2025 (CDC). Annual cases of mumps in the US last surpassed 500 in 2020 at 694, which was down from 3,780 in 2019. If cases exceed 500, data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) will be used to ascertain when the threshold was reached (CDC Stacks).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 185
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.402673
2.
-0.392905
3.
-0.304264
4.
-0.282062
5.
-0.275883

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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