How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2025?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
After a relatively quiet wildfire season in 2023, wildfires burned nearly 9 million acres in 2024 (Newsweek, NOAA, NIFC - Outlooks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2023, reported wildfires consumed 2,693,910 acres in the US (NIFC Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2023, NIFC - Wildfires and Acres).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 5.0 million, but fewer than 6.0 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 3.0 million | 1% | |
| At least 3.0 million, but fewer than 4.0 million | 1% | |
| At least 4.0 million, but fewer than 5.0 million | 7% | |
| At least 5.0 million, but fewer than 6.0 million | 55% | |
| At least 6.0 million, but fewer than 7.5 million | 11% | |
| At least 7.5 million, but fewer than 9.0 million | 16% | |
| At least 9.0 million, but fewer than 11.0 million | 7% | |
| At least 11.0 million, but fewer than 13.0 million | 2% | |
| 13.0 million or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 18 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 79 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
