How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2025?
Started
Jan 31, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
After a relatively quiet wildfire season in 2023, wildfires burned nearly 9 million acres in 2024 (Newsweek, NOAA, NIFC - Outlooks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2023, reported wildfires consumed 2,693,910 acres in the US (NIFC Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2023, NIFC - Wildfires and Acres).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 3.0 million | 0.40% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 3.0 million, but fewer than 4.0 million | 0.60% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 4.0 million, but fewer than 5.0 million | 7.30% | 0% | 0% | +5.50% |
| At least 5.0 million, but fewer than 6.0 million | 22.80% | 0% | 0% | -2.40% |
| At least 6.0 million, but fewer than 7.5 million | 18.70% | 0% | 0% | -3.10% |
| At least 7.5 million, but fewer than 9.0 million | 34.80% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 9.0 million, but fewer than 11.0 million | 12.70% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 11.0 million, but fewer than 13.0 million | 2.00% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 13.0 million or more | 0.70% | 0% | 0% | 0% |