Will the World Health Organization (WHO) declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) regarding H5N1 influenza or a contemporary descendant thereof before 1 January 2026?

Started Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
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Society   Health  

A PHEIC is defined by WHO as "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response" under International Health Regulations, with recent examples including COVID-19, mpox (fka monkeypox), and wild polio (International Health Regulations 2005, linked here under publications - WHO - International Health Regulations, International Health Regulations - Annex II, Pan American Health Organization, WHO - 20 January 2025, Johns Hopkins). The question is concerned with a PHEIC declared regarding an influenza virus classified as H5N1 or a contemporary descendant. If WHO declares a PHEIC for a mutated type of influenza formed through "reassortment/recombination" with H5N1, then it will count (CDC - Types of Influenza Viruses, CBS News, Newsweek, Nature). For the purposes of this question, a descendant will be considered contemporary if WHO reports that the "reassortment/recombination" is suspected to have occurred since 2020 (CDC).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7%
No 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 117
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.029783
2.
-0.029725
3.
-0.027419
4.
-0.026033
5.
-0.025859

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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