What will be the lowest reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2025 as of 3 October 2025?

Started Feb 21, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 10, 2025 10:00PM UTC
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Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that is at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (BBC). The question will be suspended on 2 October 2025 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 October 2025 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, click "Arctic" on the left side above the graph, NSIDC - About Charctic Data). The question will close as of the date of the lowest reported Arctic sea ice extent (the most recent if there is a tie for the lowest extent). Other site data are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2024 was 4.280 million sq. km on 11 September.

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The question closed "At least 4.6 million sq. km, but less than 5.0 million sq. km" with a closing date of 10 September 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.0 million sq. km 1%
At least 3.0 million sq. km, but less than 3.4 million sq. km 2%
At least 3.4 million sq. km, but less than 3.8 million sq. km 5%
At least 3.8 million sq. km, but less than 4.2 million sq. km 18%
At least 4.2 million sq. km, but less than 4.6 million sq. km 59%
At least 4.6 million sq. km, but less than 5.0 million sq. km 14%
At least 5.0 million sq. km, but less than 5.4 million sq. km 0%
5.4 million sq. km or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 253
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.225613
2.
-0.186926
3.
-0.16179
4.
-0.119831
5.
-0.110959

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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