Which party will the next Canadian Prime Minister come from?

Started Sep 21, 2015 08:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 19, 2015 03:59AM UTC
Tags

Opinion polls show the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals in a tight race as election day draws near (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-federal-election-poll-1.3228714 , http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/02/canada-election-leaders-factbox-idUSKCN0Q70OG20150802 ). The elections are scheduled for 19 October 2015.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Conservative 41%
Liberal 57%
New Democratic Party 2%
Other 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 147
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 457
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.558304
2.
-0.543968
3.
-0.389446
4.
-0.361982
5.
-0.310339

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username